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KBriggs
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The drop in female players in not as evident in the German DWZ data, but if. If we look at the fit residuals for the female distribution weit's pretty even across the whole range. We do see a small dip between 2000 and 2200 where the fit overestimates the density consistently, but it's not enough to explain the difference by itself. The dipThat said, the difference is atonly about half a different rating in the German systemstandard deviation, but it seemsso it's not hard to argue that it is presentinsignificant.   to be begin with.

enter image description here

The drop in female players in not as evident in the German DWZ data, but if we look at the fit residuals for the female distribution we do see a dip between 2000 and 2200 where the fit overestimates the density consistently. The dip is at a different rating in the German system, but it seems that it is present.  enter image description here

The drop in female players in not as evident in the German DWZ data. If we look at the fit residuals for the female distribution it's pretty even across the whole range. We do see a small dip between 2000 and 2200 where the fit overestimates the density consistently, but it's not enough to explain the difference by itself. That said, the difference is only about half a standard deviation, so it's not hard to argue that it is insignificant. to be begin with.

enter image description here

added logistic model comparison
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KBriggs
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The drop in female players in not as evident in the German DWZ data, but if we look at the fit residuals for the female distribution we do see a dip between 2000 and 2200 where the fit overestimates the density consistently. The dip is at a different rating in the German system, but it seems that it is present. enter image description here

Why female players in this range drop out is a question for FIDE.

Why female players in this range drop out is a question for FIDE.

The drop in female players in not as evident in the German DWZ data, but if we look at the fit residuals for the female distribution we do see a dip between 2000 and 2200 where the fit overestimates the density consistently. The dip is at a different rating in the German system, but it seems that it is present. enter image description here

Why female players in this range drop out is a question for FIDE.

added logistic model comparison
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KBriggs
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EDIT: in the comments it was pointed out that rating distributions are usually logistic. Below, I show the same plots, but with logistics fits. The data here doesn't support logistic fits very well, as the fit severely overestimates the high-rating tail of the distribution when using a logistic model. As was pointed out, there are likely a sum of a few distributions going into these things, which comes out approximately normal. Further data stratification might be necessary to get logistic fits working.

enter image description here enter image description here enter image description here

EDIT: in the comments it was pointed out that rating distributions are usually logistic. Below, I show the same plots, but with logistics fits. The data here doesn't support logistic fits very well, as the fit severely overestimates the high-rating tail of the distribution when using a logistic model. As was pointed out, there are likely a sum of a few distributions going into these things, which comes out approximately normal. Further data stratification might be necessary to get logistic fits working.

enter image description here enter image description here enter image description here

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KBriggs
  • 153
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